What Is It Good For?
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A decision tree can help identify what would
happen under a variety of standardized alternative future scenarios.
You can identify potential flaws and areas where more research
may be needed. Adding the probability of outcomes helps give participants
an overall view of what may happen under each alternative. This
tool helps participants understand what would happen under various
natural conditions, such as:
- Wet, average, and dry water years
- High, medium, and low water demands
- High, medium, and low population growth
As decision trees list all the alternatives being considered
and their outcomes, they are also useful to keep the process on
track. Participants can clearly see what the decision revolves
around.
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How Do I Use It?
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- Think of three or four possible scenarios for each alternative.
Make the scenarios as consistent as possible between alternatives
(for example, 100-year flood, 10-year flood, average flows).
- Use the same measurements and analyses for each alternative.
- Draw a square for each alternative.
- Draw a circle for each scenario.
- You can show further possibilities by drawing two ovals
to show possible outcomes for each scenario (for example, in
a high water year, this alternative may either flood the city
or fill the reservoir, depending on previous water levels).
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